Most home buyers would love to know if there’s a secret day on the calendar to get the best deal on a house.
It’s understandable considering it’s such a large purchase and many people will line up at dawn for Black Friday, and set price alerts on everything from airfare to air fryers throughout the year.
So if there were a magical 24-hour window where homes suddenly went on sale… you’d probably be tempted to try and buy a house on that day if possible, right?
Well, according to a recent report from ATTOM, that day exists! Well, sort of. While it’s backed by data, it’s not quite as cut and dry as they make it sound.
So, What Day Is (Supposedly) the Best Day to Buy?
ATTOM analyzed millions of home sales and identified the days of the year when buyers historically paid the lowest premium above the automated valuation model (AVM). Their data shows that December 24th — Christmas Eve — is the single “best” day of the year to buy a home based purely on price.
But let’s pause for a second. Read that again. They said it’s the lowest premium above the AVM.
“Best,” in this case, doesn’t mean “below market value.” It just means “the least above market value.”
Which brings us to the next point…
Why ‘Lowest Above AVM’ Doesn’t Mean It’s a Steal
The ATTOM report compares sale prices to AVMs—Automated Valuation Models. These are algorithm-driven estimates that spit out values based on nearby comps, historical trends, and other data points to spit out a “ballpark” figure.
Helpful? Absolutely. Perfect? Not even close. AVMs can be inaccurate, sometimes by a lot, especially for unique homes, small markets, or rapidly changing neighborhoods.
So just because a sale is below, close to, or slightly above an AVM doesn’t mean it’s a “deal” — it’s just a sale above an estimated market value, not a guaranteed bargain.
That said, comparing sales to AVMs is a consistent way to analyze pricing trends across the year. ATTOM’s approach highlights that, relative to other days, December 24th tends to show slightly smaller premiums. It’s an interesting signal — a way of spotting when pricing tends to be relatively lower.
But this isn’t proof that buyers are walking away with the deal of the year. It’s just a hint that, in some way, that day tends to align with slightly better relative pricing, based on a consistent benchmark.
Those Numbers Are Based on Closing Dates… Not Negotiation Dates
Those Christmas Eve closings didn’t magically happen on the same day the deals were negotiated.
In reality, it takes weeks to get to the actual closing table — often a month or more. So it’s not like a bunch of buyers stormed the market in their holiday pajamas and pulled off last-minute miracles on December 24th.
Most of those buyers likely:
- went house hunting in the fall,
- negotiated offers in October or November, and
- just happened to have their closings scheduled for Christmas Eve.
So December 24th isn’t the “best day to make a deal.” It’s simply the day those deals happened to wrap up.
That said, there is something interesting hiding in the trend…
So What Does the Trend Actually Suggest? Motivated Sellers.
If a seller is okay packing up their entire house and closing a deal on a day when most people are baking cookies, traveling, or ignoring their email, there’s probably a reason.
- Maybe they want to get the sale wrapped up before the new year.
- Maybe they’re relocating and need to move fast.
- Maybe they’re hurting financially.
Whatever their reason, they’re motivated.
And that’s what matters. Deals are more likely to happen when at least one side is motivated — not because of the calendar, but because of the circumstances that make that date work.
So while all of those deals may have been struck on entirely different days months before, anyone choosing to close on that day has to have had some serious motivation driving that decision.
So How Do You Actually Snag a Great Deal?
If there’s any “secret,” it’s this: deals don’t happen because of the day. They happen because buyers are ready when the right seller shows up.
The best opportunities come when you’re:
- already in the market
- paying attention
- prepared to move quickly
- willing to step into timelines other buyers avoid
There’s no perfect time to start, but a common trap is waiting for the “best” moment — after the new year, after spring, after rates drop, after the market “gets better.”
Meanwhile, motivated sellers appear year-round, and buyers who are already active are the ones who actually get the deals.
Could you one day snag a home that closes on Christmas Eve? Sure, if everything lines up perfectly (planets, stars, your lender, your attorney… and a little luck).
Great deals aren’t tied to the calendar. They’re tied to being ready. Deals happen year-round. Some even close below AVM estimates.
The key is simply being in the market with a knowledgeable agent, understanding the numbers, and positioning yourself to recognize value when you see it.
The Takeaway:
There’s no magical day to guarantee the lowest price on a home. While ATTOM’s data shows December 24th tends to have slightly smaller premiums above AVMs, that doesn’t mean buyers are walking away with the deal of the year.
Deals happen when sellers are motivated and buyers are ready. Timing the calendar is far less important than knowing the market, being active, and jumping on opportunities when they appear — whether it’s Christmas Eve, mid-February, or any other day of the year.
If you’re thinking about buying soon, don’t wait for the “perfect” day. Start understanding the market now, and position yourself to recognize value when it shows up. That’s the real way to get a great deal.
